Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.